After weeks of concern that extreme September heat and dry conditions could delay or diminish fall color, the outlook across the Central Appalachians is looking considerably better.

Recent rainfall and cooler temperatures arrived at an important time, according to East Tennessee State University experts, easing drought stress and putting much of the region back on track for a more typical fall color season.

“The rainfall and cooler temps came just in time for much of the region and have mitigated a lot of the stress,” said Travis Watson, ETSU campus arborist. “Based on what I see and the data that’s available, it looks like we are pretty close to on schedule for our typical timing.”

The first strong displays are already developing at the highest elevations.

Watson said Roan Mountain, Mount Mitchell (North Carolina), Mount Rogers (Virginia) and Mount LeConte in the Great Smoky Mountains are showing moderate color now and should approach peak through next week.

“This weekend is definitely the weekend to visit the highest elevations,” he said.

Fall color timing comes into focus

The improving conditions have also brought more clarity to this year’s peak-color timeline.

Watson expects mid-elevation areas to approach peak around mid-October, with much of the Tri-Cities reaching peak from late October into the first week of November, depending on elevation.

That is a more optimistic outlook than only a week ago, when prolonged warmth and drought stress suggested the region could be running roughly a week behind schedule.

The rain has made a noticeable difference.

“The rains we had were very beneficial, and their impact could be seen almost immediately in the turfgrasses and shrubs,” Watson said. “I am also seeing much less premature leaf drop.”

Dr. Andrew Joyner, Tennessee state climatologist and an ETSU professor, said the rainfall was beneficial across a broad area, extending into the North Carolina mountains.

“I think we should be on track for pretty good color now, with the recent rain and cooler temps really helping,” Joyner said.

Cooler nights arrive at the right time

More favorable temperatures are expected to continue.

Joyner said a cool front next week should keep daytime highs largely in the 70s and nighttime lows in the 40s across much of the region, with even cooler conditions at higher elevations.

“The timing of this should be really beneficial for fall leaf color,” he said.

Some warmer weather could return by mid- to late October, but Joyner said current models do not indicate conditions as extreme as those experienced in September. By that point, foliage at many elevations will already be at or beyond peak.

The return to more seasonal temperatures follows an exceptionally warm month.

Through Sept. 29, Joyner said September ranked around the 90th percentile among the warmest Septembers since 1979 in Upper East Tennessee — roughly the fourth- or fifth-warmest over that period, with a top-three finish still possible once final data are available.

Rainfall over the past eight to 10 days also dramatically changed the month’s precipitation picture.

“We went from one of the driest Septembers to just a slightly drier than average September,” Joyner said.

Tree of the week: Black Gum

A Black gum tree with green foliage photographed outside of a building on ETSU's campus.
A Black Gum tree (center) photographed on ETSU's campus outside of Gilbreath Hall on Thursday, Oct. 1, prior to its color changing.

This week’s featured tree is Black Gum, or Tupelo, Nyssa sylvatica.

Watson describes the native, mid-sized tree as easy to overlook for much of the year, but one of the most dependable sources of brilliant red fall color.

Black Gum tolerates a wide range of soils and urban conditions and produces purple fruit that ripens in the fall as its leaves begin to change.

Its scarlet color is so distinctive that cultivated varieties carry names including ‘Afterburner,’ ‘Wildfire’ and ‘Red Rage.’

“If you look closely at the woods right now, you will start to notice the glossy, bright red, leathery leaves of Tupelo,” Watson said.

The trees can be spotted along the edges of riparian areas and throughout cove forests and mountain ridges — an early signal that the region’s fall color season is underway.

ETSU's weekly Fall Color Reports combine scientific expertise with regional knowledge to help residents and visitors make the most of Appalachia's most spectacular seasons. As the Flagship of Appalachia, ETSU is uniquely positioned to share both the science and beauty behind the region's renowned autumn landscapes.  

Fall Color Reports are published every Friday at news.etsu.edu.